سیاست تک فرزندی: تجزیه و تحلیل اقتصاد کلان

چکیده:
This paper studies the effects of China's one-child policy. Using a calibrated general-equilibrium model, a
benchmark with a fertility constraint in place is compared to a counterfactual experiment without the fertility
constraint. The results indicate that the implementation of the one-child policy promotes the accumulation
of human capital and increases per capita output. In addition, the policy leads to different welfare
effects across generations and skill groups. The initial generation would benefit from relaxing the one-child
policy, but the following generations would be hurt. A redistribution effect between skilled and unskilled
workers is also observed. These findings demonstrate that focusing solely on GDP per capita as a measure
of economic well-being paints an incomplete picture of the welfare consequences of population policies.


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